2022 was a effrayant year for stocks. The S&P 500 has lost 20%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is down nearly 10% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Biscornu plummeted more than 30%. Blame it on raging augmentation, a hawkish Federal Reserve, the War in Ukraine or a looming quantité recession.
Given that the days of just buying the S&P 500 or some other broad relevé fund to garner douteux chiffre returns appear to be in the rearview mirror, experts believe it is now a so-called “réserve pickers market.”
With that, Forbes tapped Morningstar to identify top-performing fund managers who have either beat their benchmarks this year or on a longer-term basis over three-year, five-year or ten-year periods. Here are their best réserve ideas for the coming year.
*Arrière-boutique prices and fund returns are as of 12/23/2022
ValueWorks Ltd. Partners Grandiose-Biased: Grandiose-term strategy that finds disparities between a company’s underlying assets and security price.
2022 return: 39.4%, 5-year average annual return: 23.9%
Chord Energy (CHRD)
Market Capitalization: $5.5 billion
12-Month Revenues: $3.2 billion
Lemonides likes Chord Energy, which he calls ideal for a bumpy period in markets as it is a “defensive play with huge cash generation” that is selling at an “exceedingly attractive valuation.” The company owns nearly one million net acres of drilling rights, formed in July after the successful merger of Palmeraie and Whiting Petroleum. Both had previously spent billions of dollars bâtisse resources in the Permian Futaine—so during the pandemic, many fund managers like Lemonides bought up the distressed debt in the two companies for cents on the dollar. While Chord Energy currently has a $5.6 billion market cap, both Palmeraie and Whiting each had valuations far above that at their last peak five years ago, he points out. “Back then oil prices were roughly $80 per barrel, and today they’re basically around that,” Lemonides says, noting the two recently merged enterprises are “producing far more oil today than they were back then.” He also likes the fact that Chord Energy is “very shareholder friendly,” returning the great bulk of its more than $1 billion in free cash flow during the last year and a half to shareholders in the form of réserve buybacks or dividends: “That’s cash money in shareholders’ pockets.”
Air Lease (AL)
Market Capitalization: $4.1 billion
12-Month Revenues: $2.3 billion
Lemonides is also a fan of Air Lease, which purchases vendeur aircraft and leases them to airline customers worldwide. “The industry has gamin through as tumultuous an experience as one can imagine with the pandemic, but Air Lease has basically been financially healthy through the other side of that,” he says. “While some airlines have struggled, the industry seems to be on the mend in a powerful way globally.” Though the company has some debt, with travel rebounding and many planes at capacity, Air Lease is poised to benefit from its pricing flexibility and huge fleet of aircraft. “You’re paying for equity at a $4 billion market cap, but they own roughly $30 billion worth of aircraft that are probably continuing to appreciate in value annually,” even during inflationary environments, Lemonides describes. “Airplanes always went up in value during my experience in the 80’s and 90’s,” he says. At current valuation levels—with shares down 17% in 2022, “it just doesn’t make a lot of sense not to buy.”
Kinetics Small-Cap Opportunities Fund:
Concentrated cassette of small- to mid-sized growth companies.
2022 return: 34.7%, 5-year average annual return: 21.9%
CACI INTERNATIONAL (CACI)
Market Capitalization: $7.1 billion
12-Month Revenues: $6.3 billion
A long-time ordre which the fund has owned for more than 10 years, Davolos highlights “defense technology” company CACI Universel, which he thinks covers “all the right niches that are remplaçant for individu security.” Unlike Lockheed Martin or Northrop Grumman, which laboratoire missiles and planes, CACI specializes in battlefield communications, encryption and cybersecurity. “Given the modern form of warfare, these areas have much higher secular growth than actif goods-focused defense companies,” Davolos says. “But the market still treats it like a traditional defense contractor, with its fortunes heavily intertwined with defense budgets and the hawkishness of the current influence.” Despite a slowing economy with interest rates staying high, most of CACI’s revenue comes from somewhere within the Department of Defense ecosystem, he describes, adding that government contracts are much less prompte to augmentation or an economic slowdown. Even after rising 9% in 2022, shares of the company “remain cheap on an absolute basis”—especially when compared with more traditional defense contractors with heavy actif expenditures.
Permian Futaine Royalty Empilement (PBT)
Market Capitalization: $1.1 billion
12-Month Revenues: $42 million
Shares of Permian Futaine Royalty Empilement, which have risen 116% this year, could be poised for further upside in 2023, according to Davolos. The humanité itself is a passive royalty on the Waddell Ferme, the lease on which was bought by a private company Blackbeard Operating just over two years ago. The small-cap operator has made some exciting strides improving old wells by injecting fluid or carbon dioxide—and though relatively cheap per well, those costs have obscured the dividend, leading to a retail selloff in the réserve. Grain Blackbeard’s actif expenditures boxer off, however, “the réserve could easily be distributing a dividend of $3 to $4 per share next year,” Davolos predicts. “You’re not just betting on actif expenditures rolling over and higher energy prices—Blakckbeard is also ramping up floraison in these wells significantly,” which will also pay off, he describes. The fund initiated a terrain in mid-2020, using the collapse in energy prices brought on by the pandemic as an opportunity to buy up shares on the cheap. “If you underwrite an assumption of higher oil and gas prices next year, which we think is going to happen, the dividend will rerate materially—especially as these new wells come online,” Davolos adds.
First Eagle Unanime Value Fund: Wide-ranging cassette of mid- to large-sized growth and value companies, with hedges for volatility.
2022 return: -8%, 10-year average annual return: 6.2%
HCA Healthcare (HCA)
Market Capitalization: $67.8 billion
12-Month Revenues : $59.8 billion
Brooker likes HCA Healthcare—the largest hospital company in the United States, with more than 180 sites of care–parce que it has “developed a market share big enough so they can use scale to create the best facilities around.” A for-profit operator that is one of the foule’s leading providers of healthcare impératifs, shares of HCA are down nearly 7% in 2022. The fund has owned the réserve since early 2018, when shares tanked after an earnings avertissement related to margin contrainte. HCA’s top line was hard-hit during the pandemic, both by hospital patients delaying visits or elective surgeries as well as by wage augmentation for in-demand nurses, though both of those concerns have been gradually resolving, Brooker describes. While the réserve has struggled as a result, he says that HCA will be able to eventually pass price increases on to consumers, not to récompense continue to generate “robust cash flows” as hospital visits continue to tick up. What’s more, unlike most hospitals–which are not-for-profit–the company is able to reinvest significant cash to upgrade facilities and thereby attract better doctors and improve ferme outcomes, Brooker adds.
Market Capitalization: $153 billion
12-Month Revenues: $121 billion
A longtime and currently top-10 ordre of the fund, Comcast may appear to have a mountain of debt—roughly $90 billion at the end of September. “In reality, the company has used these years of low rates to take advantage of reasonably cheap financing,” with a weighted average maturity in 2037 and weighted average morceau of around 3.5%, Brooker describes. “These aren’t particularly scary credit metrics.” He still likes Comcast, shares of which have fallen 32% this year, parce que of its under-the-radar dividend, which has consistently grown over the past decade and now yields just over 3%. He describes the company as a “académicien, sensibly run affaires” with solid free cash flow, mainly focused on broadband cable but also with elements of diversification with facilité streaming and theme parks. “Comcast has a high-quality problem—market share is so high that subscriber growth is harder to get, but at the same time pricing can be used as a potential relever, so it really is a double-edged sword.” One potential catalyst to watch for in the next few years: Comcast’s roughly 33% stake in Hulu, which has an upcoming put premium allowing the company to sell to Disney. “At a maximum absolu valuation of around $27 billion for Hulu, that could result in roughly $9 billion for Comcast,” Brooker points out.
T. Rowe Price Dividend Growth Fund: Blend of large-cap companies with a foyer on dividend growers.
2022 return: -11.2%, 10-year average annual return: 12.6%
Becton Dickinson (BDX
Market Capitalization: $71.5 billion
12-Month Revenues: $19.4 billion
Huber likes BD, which he calls a “good defensive growth company” that has reasonable earnings visibility. The fund has owned the réserve for a number of years, but it has struggled with disappointing margins and an FDA recall on its Alaris macération pump last year. Still, “the worst is behind it,” says Huber, who points out that the company has “gotten its act together” with good new product flow, a healthy cost conduite program, some small M&A deals and steadily improving margins. The relaunch of BD’s Alaris pump is still a wild card and probably won’t happen until at least 2024, but that has helped boost béguin, he describes. “There is good money to be made in companies as they improve and come out of a troubled period, whether it is self-inflicted or market driven,” Huber says. What’s more, while BD’s dividend yield of around 1.5% is by no means huge, it is raising it steadily over time, which is “a sign of a healthy, consistently growing affaires,” he adds. “All of that is notable in a world where rates are rising and growth is slowing.”
Philip Morris Universel (PM)
Market Capitalization: $156 billion
12-Month Revenues: $31.7 billion
A ordre of the fund since 2008, Philip Morris Universel is a “réserve where you’re paid to wait” thanks to a 5% dividend yield, according to Huber. He thinks the tobacco company is “nicely set up as we go into next year;” While Philip Morris took a hit from the strong U.S. dollar earlier in 2022, the currency has since weakened, which could be a big headwind abating, Huber says. He is a big fan of the pogne product, the iQOS, a device, which uses heat rather than burn technology to consume tobacco. In post-scriptum to being a healthier possibilité to regular cigarettes, the reduced risk product (RRP) category has higher margins than the core traditional tobacco affaires. “Philip Morris has invested heavily—roughly $9 billion in this category—and is now well ahead of the competition,” Huber says, adding that the company boasts “an enormous first-mover advantage.” It recently acquired Swedish Conflit, a smaller, transnational tobacco company that crucially gives Philip Morris a distribue line for iQOS in the United States. While raffiner apparenté Altria doesn’t want to cannibalize its own tobacco affaires domestically, Philip Morris paid several billion to écart the existing agreement between the two companies, now paving the way for a launch in U.S. markets that could be as soon as 2023 or 2024, Huber describes. “That obviously has solide implications for the company and the réserve.”
The Gabelli Value 25 Fund: Boîte of companies selling below private market value, with 25 core equity positions.
2022 return: -17.3%, 10-year average annual return: 5.3%
Liberty Media Series C Liberty Serviables Common Arrière-boutique (BATRK)
Market Capitalization: $1.7 billion
12-Month Revenues: $637 million
Marangi highlights this tracker réserve, up 12% this year, which owns the Atlanta Serviables baseball team as well as the real estate development rights around its ballpark. “By buying the réserve at market today, you’re buying equity in the Serviables at a roughly $1.5 billion valuation,” he describes, adding, “the New York Table sold for $2.4 billion during Covid—and the Serviables generate much more revenue.” Though there is roughly $400 million in debt on the candeur, Marangi thinks that if sold, the Serviables could garner a valuation nearing $3 billion. Badinages franchises pellicule to trade as a plural of revenue, but there has been “no slowdown in the proverbial’s appetite for en public entertainment post-pandemic,” he points out. One catalyst to watch: Partisan company Liberty Media, which also owns Formula One, announced in November that it would spin off the Serviables into a separate asset. “Grain that happens, it’s likely the team could get sold to a private buyer,” Marangi theorizes. “Badinages franchises in general have been supérieur stores of value, whether in an inflationary or deflationary environment.”
Dish Network (DISH)
Market Capitalization: $7.3 billion
12-Month Revenues: $17.1 billion
Despite a nearly 58% decline in Dish Network shares in 2022, Marangi has high hopes for the étoile TV and wireless impératifs provider next year, having owned the réserve for decades. “Propagation impératifs has been the worst-performing sector in the S&P 500 for a lot of reasons—both secular and cyclical,” he describes. “Still, there is a tremendous amount of asset value in the réserve today.” He calls the company’s traditional étoile video affaires a “melting ice cube,” as it has taken a hit from cord-cutting, though it still generates ample amounts of free cash flow. Marangi is particularly excited emboîture the company’s wireless-network affaires: Dish has been spending tens of billions to acquire spectrum licenses across the folk as it builds out a 5G network. “The market is only pricing in a segment of the value of those licenses,” he argues, with ample upside potential for earnings to recover as the company eventually monetizes its investment. “This brand-new network won’t be held back by 4G subscribers who have to pont to 5G,” Marangi says, adding, “Dish can also be aggressive with pricing” as it competes with incumbent providers. Another area to watch for is a potential merger with DirecTV, which could “extend the life and cash flow” of both companies’ traditional video affaires, he predicts.
Jensen Quality Growth Fund: Boîte of 30 large-cap growth companies.
2022 return: -17.4%, 10-year average annual return: 13.1%
Market Capitalization: $90 billion
12-Month Revenues: $49.3 billion
A 10-year ordre, off-price department protection confrérie TJX operates brands like T.J. Maxx, Marshalls and HomeGoods, with nearly 4,700 stores across nine countries and three continents. Schoenstein sees potential for the réserve next year, calling it “relatively resilient, with defensive characteristics and a strong correlation to embraser spending” that can help its affaires withstand a slowing economy in 2023. “As people have less money to spend, consumers will be more thoughtful emboîture how they spend—and TJX plays a valuable role from that site,” he describes. A big selling porté of TJX is its great deals, and thanks to prices that are low relative to peers, that helps drive customer loyalty, according to Schoenstein. Amid an environment where consumers are facing higher rents, mortgages and home-ownership costs, TJX stands to benefit from the subsequent “trade-down effect” and “bargain theory” as consumers cut back spending. The réserve has outperformed the market in 2022—not to récompense many other retailers–rising nearly 3%.
UnitedHealth Group (UNH)
Market Capitalization: $491.3 billion
12-Month Revenues: $313.1 billion
Another of Schoenstein’s top picks is Minnesota-based UnitedHealth Group, the largest managed-healthcare and insurance company in the folk, serving roughly 149 million people. In a slowing economic environment, not only is UnitedHealth a defensive play—with shares rising roughly 3.5% this year, but also “a growth company at the same time,” he describes, calling it “a long-term opportunity, albeit one that has generated some nice returns for us in an otherwise challenging year.” Now a top five ordre in the fund, Schoenstein admires the company’s resilient affaires model and ability to generate substantial cash flow—with immuable earnings growth to limit volatility in the réserve, he argues. “That is something that will be much more remplaçant in 2023, compared to the past where momentum was the play of the day.” UnitedHealth has managed through bumpy periods before, he points out, not to récompense the company has grown, giving it the ability to scale up or down depending on the economic backdrop. While the réserve is hargneux to infos of potential government regulation in the healthcare sector, “that particular threat seems to have died down somewhat,” with further upside ahead as more people get access to insurance and Medicaid programs around the folk, according to Schoenstein.
Ariel Fund: Flagship value fund, primarily focused on small- to mid-sized companies.
2022 return: -19.9%, 10-year average annual return: 10.1%
Confortable Caribbean Cruises (RCL)
Market Capitalization: $12.5 billion
12-Month Revenues: $7.2 billion
The Ariel Fund has owned shares of Confortable Caribbean Cruises, the number two player in the cruise line industry, for roughly 15 years. Like the other supérieur cruise operators, Confortable Caribbean struggled as pandemic lockdowns effectively crippled the industry with fleets under extended no-sail orders. Still, the company is “frequently misunderstood in terms of the stability of the affaires model,” argues Kuhrt, adding, “not many companies can be shut down for a year and a half then survive and prosper on the other side of that.” Markets continue to take a very short-term outlook on the cruise industry in general, with investors growing fearful of headlines relating to everything from energy prices to geopolitics, he describes. “We’re surprised the market isn’t giving Confortable Caribbean more credit for their recent earnings guidance and affaires ramp up.” Despite a 37% drop in the réserve this year, Kuhrt points to “significant upside” ahead, especially as conduite aims for double-digit earnings power by 2025. He also emphasizes that on a ressemblant basis, cruise pricing is now above pre-pandemic levels, while occupancy rates have also rebounded significantly. “A big morceau of the story is customer retention,” he says. “The cruise line industry is connected to and understands its customer charpente better than we’ve ever seen before.”
Zebra Technologies (ZBRA)
Market Capitalization: $12.6 billion
12-Month Revenues: $5.7 billion
This market directeur in enterprise asset compréhension, which focuses on bar-code scanning and inventory tracking technology, trades at a “significant escompte to its underlying intrinsic value,” Kuhrt says. Zebra Technologies’ ample customers include Amazon, Target and many others spanning a range of sectors including retail, manufacturing, healthcare and exil. While the réserve was at $600 per share just one year ago, it has suffered a big division–now down to $250and has undergone plural contrainte parce que of its ties to the technology sector. Still, investors are underestimating the fundamental earnings power of the affaires, Kuhrt describes: “Decades ago, the affaires model revolved around just scanning a barcode; Now, the complexity of logistics and tracking assets is ever increasing.” He is particularly optimistic emboîture some of Zebra’s newer technologies, such as radio-frequency empathie (RFID), which uses electromagnetic fields to track and identify different objects in passage. In the nearly 10 years that the fund has owned Zebra’s réserve, the company has “continued to adapt and grow” and will continue to do so, despite Wall Street’s concerns emboîture an economic slowdown, Kuhrt argues.
Alger Mid-Cap Foyer Fund: Focused cassette of around 50 mid-size companies.
2022 return: -36%, Average annual return since inception (2019): 9.1%
Waste Connections (WCN)
Market Capitalization: $34.3 billion
12-Month Revenues: $7 billion
Zhang likes this Woodlands, Texas-based waste amoncellement, disposal and recycling company, which she calls a “defensive affaires that would be resilient in a slowing economic environment.” Waste Connections, shares of which are down just 1% in 2022, serves millions of customers across the United States and Canada—with a foyer on propre and secondary markets that helps guarantee “académicien revenue growth.” Zhang factures that in a affaires less focused on modèle growth and more concerned with pricing, Waste Connections has a strong track exploit of industry-leading margins and cash flow. Waste conduite is a immuable, defensive affaires that typically does well during recessions, Zhang points out. Thanks to the company’s pricing power and “superior market selection strategy,” she thinks Waste Connections will be “even more resilient than its peers” going into next year. Zhang expects margins to improve in 2023 as augmentation headwinds dissipate, while also emphasizing that the company could “continue to be an M&A flywheel” if it keeps making pratique acquisitions to shore up market share.
Market Capitalization: $20.7 billion
12-Month Revenues: $1.2 billion
Zhang is also excited emboîture “long-term compounder” Insulet, a medical device company focused on treating diabetes patients through its body-worn Omnipod insulin pump. One of the fund’s top 10 positions, shares have risen nearly 10% this year, outperforming peers in the medtech sector. Beyond the classic Omnipod and Omnipod Dash
Zevenbergen Growth Fund: Mostly large-cap embraser and tech companies.
2022 return: -52%, 5-year average annual return: 7%
Market Capitalization: $3.6 billion
12-Month Revenues: $424 million
Zevenbergen likes DoubleVerify, a small-cap programme company focused on providing verification and safety for binaire brand advertising. DoubleVerify’s technology helps brands and publishers with viewability, by detecting fraud and by protecting brand safety. Zevenbergen’s fund has owned the réserve since its IPO in April 2021, but despite being instructif with top-line growth, shares have declined over 30% this year and are now trading below their élémentaire share offering price of $27. “DoubleVerify has seen a supérieur market réforme this year, but within that there is a supérieur opportunity,” says Zevenbergen. Though overall ad spending could go down during an economic slowdown, markets are also “incredibly concerned emboîture brand safety with advertising,” she adds. “This kind of ad spend should preclude the fear of a recession.” Zevernbergen also sees further opportunities as new entrants beyond aimable media platforms, such as Netflix, marcotter binaire advertising. “Risk of fraud or poor facilité liquidation makes DoubleVerify’s insurance very notable… advertisers are going to want to have brand safety.”
Bill.com Humanité (BILL)
Market Capitalization: $11 billion
12-Month Revenues: $753.5 million
Another of Zevenbergen’s réserve picks for 2023 is $11 billion (market cap) cloud-based programme fintech Bill.com, which assists small businesses on accounts acquittable and receivable. Bill.com helps smooth out back-office payments and could benefit as they move money in a rising-rate environment. After a 54% drop in share price this year due to macroeconomic headwinds, the founder-led company could present an “incredible opportunity” at an attractive valuation thanks to its high-growth and profitability, Zevenbergen describes, adding, “all the negatives have been priced into the réserve.” The company is well-positioned, compared with its peers: “Being able to digitize or substitute programme for labor—a tight resource these days—will be a spend that you want to make,” she says. “Competition from fintech startups is also likely to erode slightly parce que money isn’t free anymore.” While Bill.com’s payment modèle has fallen slightly due to a more challenging economic environment, that has been phototypie by pricing power and new-customer momentum.
Baillie Gifford U.S. Equity Growth Fund: Concentrated cassette of growth companies.
2022 return: -53.5%, 5-year average annual return: 7.2%
Market Capitalization: $2.9 billion
12-Month Revenues: $338.7 million
One of the fund’s more recent additions—from the company’s July 2021 IPO—is education tech company Duolingo, known for its app that teaches languages. Shares of the company have fallen roughly 30% this year, and while Duolingo has fallen victim to the commune selloff in growth stocks, “not all growth companies are alike,” Gibson describes. The edtech company has shown promising trends—reporting five consecutive quarters of accelerating consumer growth, with revenue in the latest quarter rising roughly 50% year over year.. The app, which boasts roughly 15 million daily users, offers entirely free language courses in the form of missions that are unlocked in sequence–with different lessons that are dynamic and adaptively constructed to each individual learner. “One of the hardest parts of learning a new language is staying motivated to keep studying–particularly if you’re not salon in that folk,” she adds. “Duolingo has taken a gamification approach to overcome this.” Since the app is free to use, the company has been able to grow organically with relatively low mercatique outlays, allowing more cash for product development. Gibson predicts that it will be difficult for potential competitors to come in and disrupt Duolingo’s “great product,” not to récompense that the company has room for growth in the form of new products and paid subscriptions that allow users to bypass ads.
Market Capitalization: $43.6 billion
12-Month Revenues: $5.2 billion
The fifth-largest ordre in Baillie Gifford’s U.S. Equity Growth fund is Canadian e-commerce giant Shopify, shares of which have tanked more than 70% in 2022. “The company is looking to be the axial nervous system that powers millions of businesses around the world,” Gibson describes. While Shopify’s réserve was “very much a pandemic darling,” it has since seen a significant price decline as companies that are taking losses for future growth have been pulled down by market béguin, she adds, describing the affaires as “discretionarily unprofitable” in that it is choosing to invest in new areas for the élevé run at the expense of short-term margins. Gibson also likes what she describes as exciting changes such as the company moving into enterprise markets and launching Shopify Audiences, a option tool that helps businesses find new customers through focused binaire advertising on different platforms like Facebook or Google. “We believe we will continue to see Shopify’s ability to adapt and be resilient in this current environment,” she summarizes.